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5-Day Cone of Uncertainty

FGDC Metadata

Identification Information:
Native Data Set Environment: Microsoft Windows 2000 Version 5.0 (Build 2195) Service Pack 4; ESRI ArcCatalog 9.1.0.722
Description:
Language of Dataset: en
Abstract: The cone of uncertainty is a polygonal shape around the forecast points for a storm advisory that represents the average error in the forecasted locations over the last 10 years.
Purpose: The cone of uncertainty is a visual aid used in hurricane forecasting of the track that balloons outward from a storm's current position, three to five days into the future.
Supplemental Information: Storm advisory information is based on message traffic received from the National Weather Service/Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (NWS/NCEP/TPC, http://www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov), and the Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center/Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC, http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html). Past, current, and predicted storm track positions are reported as well as the wind speed at each position.
Citation:
Citation Information:
Publication Date: As Needed
File or Table Name: cones5day
Geospatial Data Presentation Form: vector digital data
Title: 5-Day Cone of Uncertainty
Originator: Pacific Disaster Center
Larger Work Citation:
Citation Information:
Other Citation Details: GHIN_PDC_Active_Hazards
Online Linkage: http://www.pdc.org
Online Linkage: http://atlas.pdc.org
Time Period of Content:
Currentness Reference: ground condition
Time Period Information:
Single Date/Time:
Calendar Date: Daily
Status:
Progress: Complete
Maintenance and Update Frequency: As needed
Spatial Domain:
Bounding Coordinates:
West Bounding Coordinate: -180.000000
East Bounding Coordinate: 180.000000
North Bounding Coordinate: 82.775719
South Bounding Coordinate: -88.899945
Local Bounding Coordinates:
Left Bounding Coordinate: -19360594.275000
Right Bounding Coordinate: 19265689.400000
Bottom Bounding Coordinate: -29589931.175000
Top Bounding Coordinate: 17577791.175000
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme Keyword Thesaurus: ESRI standard theme codes are used for relating FGDC metadata to the corresponding ISO categories
Theme Keyword: climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Theme Keyword: SevereWeather
Place:
Place Keyword Thesaurus: ArcIMS Metadata Server gazetteer
Place Keyword: Pacific Ocean
Place Keyword: Indian Ocean
Access Constraints: None
Use Constraints: Storm forecast points are human-generated, and they represent a blend of the specialists' experiences and the various models. The cone is a statistical area of uncertainty based upon the fact that the further out in time the forecast is the less accurate the forecast. Historically, a given storm has a 60 to 70 percent chance of staying within the cone of uncertainty during a 3 day time period.
Native Dataset Format: Shapefile
Point of Contact:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Organization: Pacific Disaster Center
Contact Person: Director
Contact Position: Data & Information Resources Division
Contact Address:
Address Type: mailing and physical address
Address: 1305 North Holopono Street, Suite 2
City: Kihei
State or Province: Hawaii
Postal Code: 96753
Country: United States
Contact Voice Telephone: 808-891-0525
Contact Facsimile Telephone: 808-891-0526
Contact Electronic Mail Address: data@pdc.org
Security Information:
Security Classification: Unclassified
Security Handling Description: Grant access to all users.
Data Quality Information:
Lineage:
Process Step:
Process Description: 1) The cone is constructed using the following methodology: -- The cone shape algorithm is set to draw circles along the forecasted path of the storm. The radius of each circle drawn is slightly bigger than the last. Each new circle is joined with the main cone shape. The circles are close enough together that the edge of each circle drawn gives the appearance of a smooth line. The joining of all the circles gives the total cone shape. The distances (nautical miles) used to calculate the cone of uncertainty features are as follows: 0hr 20nm 12hr 50nm 24hr 80nm 36hr 120nm 48hr 160nm 72hr 220nm 96hr 270nm 120hr 300nm 2) The three day cone is constructed with the above methodology using only the forecast points out to and including 72 hours. 3) The five day cone is constructed with the above methodology using all the forecast points available. 4)Tropical Cyclone Advisories are issued from the National Weather Service and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center four times a day at 0, 0600, 1200, 1800 GMT.
(date):20030328
Time of Day: 10583800
Source Information:
Source Citation:
Citation Information:
Originator: National Weather Service/Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, Todd.Spidler@noaa.gov
Originator: Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center/Joint Typhoon Warning Center, dirjtwc@npmoc.navy.mil
Title: 1) National Weather Service 2) Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Other Citation Details: Item: Storm Advisories Date Received: As Needed Notes: Data downloaded from: 1) National Weather Service/Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center: http://www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ 2) Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center/Joint Typhoon Warning Center: http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html
Source Citation Abbreviation: Storm Advisories
Attribute Value Accuracy Information:
Attribute Accuracy Report: None
Logical Consistency Report: None
Completeness Report: None
Positional Accuracy:
Horizontal Positional Accuracy:
Horizontal Positional Accuracy Report: Storm forecast points are human-generated, and they represent a blend of the specialists' experiences and the various models. The cone is a statistical area of uncertainty based upon the fact that the further out in time the forecast is the less accurate the forecast. Historically, a given storm has a 60 to 70 percent chance of staying within the cone of uncertainty during a 3 day time period.
Vertical Positional Accuracy:
Vertical Positional Accuracy Report: None
Spatial Data Organization Information:
Direct Spatial Reference Method: Vector
Point and Vector Object Information:
ESRI Terms Description:
ESRI Feature Type: Simple
ESRI Feature Geometry: Polygon
ESRI Topology: FALSE
ESRI Feature Count: 29
Spatial Index: TRUE
Linear Referencing: FALSE
SDTS Terms Description:
SDTS Point and Vector Object Type: G-polygon
Point and Vector Object Count: 29
Spatial Reference Information:
Horizontal Coordinate System Definition:
Coordinate System Name:
Geographic Coordinate System Name: GCS_WGS_1984
Projected Coordinate System Name: Custom
Planar:
Planar Coordinate Information:
Planar Coordinate Encoding Method: coordinate pair
Planar Distance Units: meters
Coordinate Representation:
Abscissa Resolution: 0.131072
Ordinate Resolution: 0.131072
Map Projection:
Map Projection Name: Mercator
Mercator:
Standard Parallel: 0.000000
Longitude of Central Meridian: 150.000000
False Easting: 0.000000
False Northing: 0.000000
Geodetic Model:
Horizontal Datum Name: D_WGS_1984
Ellipsoid Name: WGS_1984
Semi-major Axis: 6378137.000000
Denominator of Flattening Ratio: 298.257224
Vertical Coordinate System Definition:
Altitude System Definition:
Altitude Encoding Method: Explicit elevation coordinate included with horizontal coordinates
Altitude Resolution: 1.000000
Entity and Attribute Information:
Detailed Description:
Entity Type:
Entity Type Label: cones5day
Entity Type Type: Feature Class
Entity Type Count: 29
Attribute:
Attribute Label: SHAPE
Attribute Alias: SHAPE
Attribute Type: Geometry
Attribute Width: 4
Attribute Precision: 0
Attribute Scale: 0
Attribute Definition: Feature geometry.
Attribute Definition Source: ESRI
Attribute Domain Values:
Unrepresentable Domain: Coordinates defining the features.
Attribute:
Attribute Label: FID
Attribute Alias: FID
Attribute Type: String
Attribute Width: 8
Attribute Definition: Internal feature number.
Attribute Definition Source: ESRI
Attribute Domain Values:
Unrepresentable Domain: Sequential unique whole numbers that are automatically generated.
Attribute:
Attribute Label: Shape
Attribute Alias: Shape
Attribute Type: Number
Attribute Width: 6
Attribute Definition: Feature geometry.
Attribute Definition Source: ESRI
Attribute Domain Values:
Unrepresentable Domain: Coordinates defining the features.
Attribute:
Attribute Label: ID
Attribute Alias: ID
Attribute Type: String
Attribute Width: 8
Attribute:
Attribute Label: NAME
Attribute Alias: NAME
Attribute Type: String
Attribute Width: 30
Attribute:
Attribute Label: ADVISORY
Attribute Alias: ADVISORY
Attribute Type: Number
Attribute Width: 4
Attribute:
Attribute Label: EVENT_ID
Attribute Alias: EVENT_ID
Attribute Type: Float
Attribute Width: 19
Attribute Number of Decimals: 11
Attribute:
Attribute Label: SHAPE_AREA
Attribute Alias: SHAPE_AREA
Attribute Type: Float
Attribute Width: 19
Attribute Definition: Area of feature in internal units squared.
Attribute Definition Source: ESRI
Attribute Domain Values:
Unrepresentable Domain: Positive real numbers that are automatically generated.
Attribute Number of Decimals: 11
Attribute:
Attribute Label: SHAPE_LEN
Attribute Alias: SHAPE_LEN
Attribute Type: Double
Attribute Width: 19
Attribute Precision: 18
Attribute Scale: 11
Distribution Information:
Standard Order Process:
Digital Form:
Digital Transfer Information:
Transfer Size: 0.052
Dataset Size: 0.052
Distributor:
Contact Information:
Contact Person Primary:
Contact Person: Director
Contact Organization: Pacific Disaster Center
Contact Position: Data & Information Resources Division
Contact Address:
Address Type: mailing and physical address
Address: 1305 North Holopono Street, Suite 2
City: Kihei
State or Province: Hawaii
Postal Code: 96753
Country: United States
Contact Voice Telephone: 808-891-0525
Contact Facsimile Telephone: 808-891-0526
Contact Electronic Mail Address: data@pdc.org
Distribution Liability: None
Resource Description: Live Data and Maps
Metadata Reference Information:
Language of Metadata: en
Metadata Standard Name: FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata Standard Version: FGDC-STD-001-1998
Metadata Time Convention: local time
Metadata Contact:
Contact Information:
Contact Organization Primary:
Contact Person: Director
Contact Organization: Pacific Disaster Center
Contact Address:
Address Type: mailing and physical address
City: Kihei
State or Province: Hawaii
Postal Code: 96753
Address: 1305 North Holopono Street, Suite 2
Country: United States
Contact Voice Telephone: 808-891-0525
Contact Position: Data & Information Resources Division
Contact Facsimile Telephone: 808-891-0526
Contact Electronic Mail Address: data@pdc.org
Metadata Date: 20110202
Metadata Access Constraints: Grant access to all users.
Metadata Security Information:
Metadata Security Classification: Unclassified
Metadata Use Constraints: None

ISO Metadata

Metadata identifier: {92339E5F-A77A-4B43-807B-0B63F021D4D4}
Metadata language:
English
Metadata character set:
utf8 - 8 bit UCS Transfer Format
Scope of the data described by the metadata:
dataset
Scope name: dataset
Metadata contact:
Individual's name: Director
Organization's name: Pacific Disaster Center
Contact's position: Data & Information Resources Division
Contact information:
Address:
Delivery point: 1305 North Holopono Street, Suite 2
City: Kihei
Administrative area: Hawaii
Postal code: 96753
e-mail address: data@pdc.org
Country: us
Phone:
Voice: 808-891-0525
Fax: 808-891-0526
Contact's role:
publisher
Last update: 20110202
Name of the metadata standard used: ISO 19115 Geographic Information - Metadata
Version of the metadata standard: DIS_ESRI1.0
Distribution Information:
Distributor:
Transfer options:
Online source:
Online location (URL): http://atlas.pdc.org
Connection protocol: Hypertext Transfer
Function performed:
offline access
Description: Live Data and Maps
Transfer size: 0.052
Medium of distribution:
Medium name:
CD-ROM
Available format:
Format name: Shapefile
Format version: Standard ESRI shapefile format
Contact information:
Individual's name: Director
Organization's name: Pacific Disaster Center
Contact's position: Data & Information Resources Division
Contact information:
Address:
Delivery point: 1305 North Holopono Street, Suite 2
City: Kihei
Administrative area: Hawaii
Postal code: 96753
e-mail address: data@pdc.org
Country: us
Phone:
Voice: 808-891-0525
Fax: 808-891-0526
Contact's role:
distributor
Identification Information:
Processing environment: Microsoft Windows 2000 Version 5.0 (Build 2195) Service Pack 4; ESRI ArcCatalog 9.1.0.722
Dataset language:
English
Citation:
Presentation format:
digital map
Party responsible for the resource:
Individual's name: Director
Organization's name: Pacific Disaster Center
Contact's position: Data & Information Resources Division
Contact's role:
processor
Contact information:
Address:
Delivery point: 1305 North Holopono Street, Suite 2
City: Kihei
Administrative area: Hawaii
Postal code: 96753
e-mail address: data@pdc.org
Country: us
Phone:
Voice: 808-891-0525
Fax: 808-891-0526
Title: 5-Day Cone of Uncertainty
Party responsible for the resource:
Individual's name: Todd Spidler
Organization's name: National Weather Service
Contact's position: Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center
Contact information:
Address:
Delivery point: 11691 SW 17th Street
City: Miami
Administrative area: Florida
Postal code: 33165-2149
e-mail address: Todd.Spidler@noaa.gov
Country: us
Contact's role:
originator
Party responsible for the resource:
Organization's name: Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Contact's position: Director of JTWC
Contact information:
Address:
City: Pearl Harbor
Administrative area: HI
e-mail address: dirjtwc@npmoc.navy.mil
Country: us
Contact's role:
originator
Party responsible for the resource:
Individual's name: Director
Organization's name: Pacific Disaster Center
Contact's position: Data & Information Resources Division
Contact information:
Address:
Delivery point: 1305 North Holopono Street, Suite 2
City: Kihei
Administrative area: HI
Postal code: 96753
e-mail address: data@pdc.org
Country: us
Phone:
Voice: 808-891-0525
Fax: 808-891-0526
Contact's role:
publisher
Alternate titles: cones5day
Reference date:
Date: 20100101
Type of date:
creation
Spatial representation type:
vector
Keyword Information:
Keyword Type:
Place keywords
Thesaurus name:
Title: ArcIMS Metadata Server gazetteer
Keywords: Pacific Ocean
Keywords: Indian Ocean
Resource constraints:
Constraints:
Limitations of use: Storm forecast points are human-generated, and they represent a blend of the specialists' experiences and the various models. The cone is a statistical area of uncertainty based upon the fact that the further out in time the forecast is the less accurate the forecast. Historically, a given storm has a 60 to 70 percent chance of staying within the cone of uncertainty during a 3 day time period.
Resource's bounding rectangle:
West longitude: -180
East longitude: 180
North latitude: 82.775719
South latitude: -88.899945
Extent contains the resource: yes
Abstract: The cone of uncertainty is a polygonal shape around the forecast points for a storm advisory that represents the average error in the forecasted locations over the last 10 years. It is a visual aid used in hurricane forecasting of the track that balloons outward from a storm's current position, three to five days into the future.
Themes or categories of the resource:
climatology, meteorology, and atmosphere
Resource maintenance:
Update frequency:
as needed
Other extent information:
Geographic extent:
Geographic extent:
West longitude: -19360594.275
East longitude: 19265689.4
North latitude: 17577791.175
South latitude: -29589931.175
Extent contains the resource: yes
Data Quality Information:
Lineage:
Lineage statement: 1) The cone is constructed using the following methodology: -- The cone shape algorithm is set to draw circles along the forecasted path of the storm. The radius of each circle drawn is slightly bigger than the last. Each new circle is joined with the main cone shape. The circles are close enough together that the edge of each circle drawn gives the appearance of a smooth line. The joining of all the circles gives the total cone shape. The distances (nautical miles) used to calculate the cone of uncertainty features are as follows: 0hr 20nm 12hr 50nm 24hr 80nm 36hr 120nm 48hr 160nm 72hr 220nm 96hr 270nm 120hr 300nm 2) The three day cone is constructed with the above methodology using only the forecast points out to and including 72 hours. 3) The five day cone is constructed with the above methodology using all the forecast points available. 4)Tropical Cyclone Advisories are issued from the National Weather Service and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center four times a day at 0, 0600, 1200, 1800 GMT.
Scope of quality information:
Level of the data:
dataset
Spatial Representation Information:
Spatial Representation - Vector:
Level of topology for this dataset:
geometry only
Geometric objects:
Object type:
complexes
Object count: 29
Reference System Information:
Reference system identifier:
Reference system identifier:
Identity code: Custom

ESRI Metadata

Esri:
Creation Date: 20110202
Creation Time: 10252100
Synchronize Once: FALSE
Synchronization Date: 20050928
Synchronization Time: 12460100
Modification Date: 20110202
Modification Time: 10225300
Published Status: Published
Metadata ID: {13E39F6B-42BD-4E02-A3F6-08867C45D009}
Published Document ID: {C942931B-5F14-4AD8-998E-EC2EA9D9A1CB}